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Pasaran Saham

Technical Analysis – Citigroup stock pulls back ahead of earnings

Citigroup shares post 25-month high in 2024 But experience a setback ahead of Q4 earnings on Friday Short-term oscillators soften in overbought territories Citigroup’s stock has been staging a V-shaped recovery since its 2023 bottom in October, posting consecutive multi-month highs. In the near term, the stock posted a fresh 25-month peak of 63.62 one week ahead of Q1 earnings, but quickly retraced lower due to reaching overbought conditions.
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Banks Q1 earnings: Weak results despite stock outperformance – Stock Markets

US banks kick off Q1 earnings on Friday before opening bell Earnings set to drop despite the robust US economy Valuation multiples rise but remain historically cheap   Solid quarter due to Fed repricing The banking sector started the year on the wrong foot as expectations of six rate cuts by the Fed had delivered a strong hit to their net interest margin outlook. This metric is essentially the difference between the interest income generated by long-term assets such as loans an
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Can Q1 earnings season refuel the equity market rally? – Stock Markets

Earnings parade unofficially starts on April 12 with major US banks S&P 500 profit growth forecast at 5.1% y/y after downward revision Fluctuating expectations around Fed policy remain a key risk factor   Investors hit the pause button Undoubtedly, the major US indices had a fantastic 2023, with the positive momentum being carried over to this year as the soft-landing narrative became more and more entrenched in market projections.
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Why does the 10-year US yield remain so high?

The 10-year US yield is a key determinant of FX moves It tends to drop when the Fed prepares to cut its interest rates Despite market expectations about the Fed, the 10-year US yield remains high A stock market correction could be a catalyst for a sizeable drop in US yields The 10-year US yield is the barometer of the US economy.
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Tesla stock has a bumpy path so far in 2024 Remains exposed to additional bearish actions Support could be next found around 155   Tesla’s stock finished the first quarter of 2024 on the downside. Having lost nearly 33% so far this year, questions remain about whether the price could experience a meaningful rebound amid falling demand for electric vehicles and increased competition in China.
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Technical Analysis – US 500 index retreats from record high

US 500 faces downside pressures for the second consecutive day More weakness possible, but key support levels are nearby   The US 500 stock index (cash) opened negative on Tuesday, strengthening its negative momentum towards its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which has been buffering downside movements since the start of the year, around 5,185. With the RSI marking a new low below an important support area and the stochastic oscillator decelerating, the odds for a bearish
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Technical Analysis – GER 40 index marks highs after highs

German 40 index hits all-time high Uptrend shows ongoing strength, but a pause is likely   The German 40 index has been having an exceptional performance so far in 2024, gaining more than 10% to unlock an all-time high of 18,510 on Wednesday. The ongoing positive trend has yet to show any cracks, but with the price marking its 10th consecutive green week near the upper Bollinger band and the momentum indicators pointing to overbought conditions, the bears could be around the corne
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US 100 cash index is in the green today, hovering just below its all-time high The market survived a key week and is probably preparing for the Easter break Momentum indicators remain mostly on the bulls’ side The US 100 cash index is edging higher today as the market survived, mostly unscathed, the busiest week of 2024. It continues to trade a tad below its March 21, 2024 high at 18,467 but only above the October 26, 2023 ascending trendline.
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Does the Easter break affect markets?

Oil prices tends to rally before and after Easter Sunday Euro/dollar’s performance becomes clearer when drilling down the data Patterns emerge when focusing only on Easter Sunday occurring in March Most participants who trade based on seasonal patterns, enjoy combining the market’s performance with certain events like the Christmas and Easter breaks.
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How the markets could react to the Fed meeting

Fed meeting coming up next; the market is in waiting mode The 10-year US Treasury yield usually reacts first to Fed decisions Gold and EURUSD could benefit from lower US yields The much talked about Fed meeting is taking place tonight at 18.00 GMT with the usual press conference held 30 minutes later. There is a growing debate about the outcome of the meeting, the overall rhetoric by Chairman Powell and the famous dot plot.
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JP225 index marches higher after BoJ’s dovish hike – Stock Markets

Japanese stock markets advance after BoJ hike decision Baby step to normalize monetary policy boosts confidence in economy BoJ’s pledge for accommodative stance also aids   First hike since 2007 On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, dragging them out of the negative zone. Besides that, policymakers in Japan announced the end of the yield curve control policy and purchases of risky assets such as domestic ETFs.
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Technical Analysis – Will JP 225 index continue its record rally?

JP 225 index flirts with all-time highs Short-term technical signals remain encouraging   Japan’s 225 stock index (cash) is on the rise again, aiming to revive its five-month-old positive trend above the March record high of 40,564 after finding support near the 38,310 area. The technical signals favor the upward move in the price as the RSI is sloping northwards and is still some distance off its 70 overbought mark.
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US 500 index continues to trade a tad below its all-time high Bulls could be taking a breather as the October 27, 2023 trendline acts as support Momentum indicators mostly support the prevailing bullish appetite The US 500 cash index is trading sideways today, a tad below its all-time high of 5,189 recorded on March 14. The market is most likely in anticipation mode for this week’s key events and particularly Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
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Why do US stocks keep ignoring downside risks? – Stock Markets

S&P 500 posts record high despite upbeat CPI print Projections of fewer rate cuts do not scare stocks Can this rally extend without a sizable correction?   Stocks unhindered by hotter-than-expected inflation report On Tuesday, the S&P 500 recorded a fresh all-time high, while both the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones finished the session in the green despite the stronger-than-expected US CPI print.
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Technical Analysis – Intel stock battles with 50-day SMA

Intel shares advance after consolidation period But struggle to conquer the 50-day SMA Momentum indicators turn positive Intel’s stock had been stagnant since late January, following a significant bearish price gap in the aftermath of the firm’s Q4 earnings announcement. Although the price attempted a recovery in the past few sessions, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) seems to be acting as a strong ceiling.
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Technical Analysis – US 100 stock index at risk of double top

US 100 stock index forms bearish structure The market could balance selling forces above 17,800   The US 100 stock index (cash) seems to have formed a bearish double top pattern within a rising channel and around the peak area of 18,338. The bears will have to successfully complete that negative pattern below the 17,800-17,914 neckline to visit the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 17,389. Slightly lower, the constraining ascending line from Januar
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Apple shares slide to the lowest since October 31 But find their feet and recoup minor losses Momentum indicators exit oversold territories   Apple’s stock has been very volatile in the past few months, opening frequently with significant price gaps. In the short term, the stock has been in a steep decline, falling to a fresh four-month bottom of 168.30 last week before paring some losses.
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Technical Analysis – US 500 cash index in the red again

US 500 index trades lower after recording a new all-time high The pace of the rally remains aggressive but euphoria dominates Bears continue to closely monitor the stochastic oscillator’s movements The US 500 cash index is edging lower again today after recording a new all-time high of 5,189 last week. Friday’s mixed US labour market data do not appear to have dented the market’s bullish appetite but some profit taking has clearly taken place.
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Apple and Tesla lag the Magnificent 7 pack – Stock Markets

Magnificent 7 propel US indices to record highs Apple diverges due to lack of AI initiatives Tesla also suffers from weakness in Chinese market   AI leads the way The so-called Magnificent Seven group comprised of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla has been the driving force behind the consecutive all-time highs observed in the major US equity indices. The tech behemoths have largely benefited from the Artificial Intelligence (AI) mania, with
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Technical Analysis – US 100 stock index meets familiar support zone

US 100 stock index turns red after all-time high Downside risks balanced above 20-day EMA   The US 100 stock index (cash) has been in a clear uptrend since October 2023, gaining 28% to pause at a record high of 18,339 on Monday. The index opened at the back foot on Tuesday, but the bearish move is not a concern yet. Instead, the negative action can be considered part of the upward pattern as long as the price holds above the 17,945 level.
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